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Has Putin is increasingly cornered will he resort to the burnt earth strategy?

will he resort to the burnt earth strategy?

Samx
Samx Male
14 days ago
By pressing the atomic button?
On-The-Beach
On-The-Beach Male
14 days ago
Don't be silly.
G-O-W
G-O-W Female
14 days ago
I agree, don't be silly!
MrQuiet
MrQuiet Male
14 days ago
I was about to say Don't be silly.
On-The-Beach
On-The-Beach Male
13 days ago
Putin's threats ...

The world is currently distracted; by Queen Elizabeth II's death and funeral and, especially by the UN meeting in New York because, just about, all the leaders, movers and shakers of the world are absent from their helm of government and, likewise, absent from from their offices back home ... with the UK particularly govern-less thanks to the combination of the drawn out leadership election, the Queen's death and PM Truss, (now overseas), not yet even close to beginning the governing of the country she has been side loaded in to lead.

So, once again, the hapless Putin thinks he can be smart and make his apocalyptic statements; this time in the knowledge that there will be ... can be ... no immediate global response from individual countries. not least until those UN delegates get home to formulate their idiosyncratic individual responses to Putin's bellicose rhetoric.

Sure. We might see some general proclamation of outrage from elements within the UN but I'm not convinced it will put out much more than a very basic response at the moment.

This suits Putin.

He will regard his own nuclear charged threats and his "not bluffing" retort as the perfect message to slip into the voiceless political vacuum that the UN New York gathering temporarily creates though, as per usual, (as with Putin's invasion of Ukraine delivering unity and not fragmentation of a West he comprehensively misread), he is digging himself even deeper by (now) planning a 'referendum' to magically turn parts of an invaded Ukraine into an extension of Mother Russia proper; a kind of magician like swift slight of hand that he thinks will suffice to officially make Ukraine Russian territory overnight despite its illegal and sham like nature.

And, of course, as 'Russian territory', he will then claim that any attack upon it is escalating the conflict.

And I think that is his ultimate goal ... and the only place he feels he has left to go.

To up the anti enough to create some bargaining position or, as the military experts call it, "To escalate to de-escalate."
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As to using even localised tactical nukes?

He might wish to but he still has commanders and military generals he relies on ... and they have families.

In even considering localised tactical nuclear warfare, (a move that would ultimately change the game and eventually deliver full scale nuclear war), would they allow or enable Putin to take things to that lamentable terrifying level?

Yes. A very large percentage of the Russian population actually believe Putin's lies about the West wanting to undermine Russia but they all have eyes and ears and, really, they know he is bad for Russia and bad for them.

He may not get unseated by political unrest from within ... but he couldn't be sure.

I think that's why he's ordered a 'partial' mobilisation of troops rather than a full blown one.

It's a continuation of the cowardly mode of operation he has used already. 'Making threats and shouting loudest while actually hiding behind the sofa."

That's how he is conducting his war. A war that Russia is now comprehensively losing.
On-The-Beach
On-The-Beach Male
13 days ago
My guess?

A partial mobilisation of troops, (involving yet more tens of thousands of young naive conscripts), Russia's population might stomach but a full mobilisation depriving Russian society of forcefully conscripted men and women currently keeping the fabric of Russian society working, (The butcher, the baker, the candlestick maker all downing tools and going to war), is not something the Russian people will tolerate.
wonderoushen
wonderoushen Female
13 days ago
Putin has announced a partial mobilisation of reservists, people with military experience. They're also allowing mercenary groups to recruit from prisons, which to me a really desperate move.


I saw incendary bombs being dropped on villages retaken by Ukraine, which is just horrible, I think Putin will persue a scorched earth policy, but I think he's more likely to use tacticle nukes than large long range ones. I think he's becoming increasingly desperate which makes him more dangerous, the bigger his losses the more the risks of nuclear escalation, but also the risks to Putin personally from within. I think it has to be asked how much of last nights announcements were for a domestic audience?
Minnie-the-Minx
Minnie-the-Minx Female
13 days ago
I'm pretty sure that Putin is certifiable and capable of just about anything.  But he is also clever and I think he also plays the long game and I'm not sure that nuking would actually help him.
persona_non_grata
persona_non_grata Male
13 days ago
If Putin was considered to have gone to far would the country be capable of unseating him?
BOYDEL
BOYDEL Male
13 days ago
Other news sources are saying that there is a now a mass exodus of Russian people seeking to escape conscription.
On-The-Beach
On-The-Beach Male
13 days ago
"Putin has announced a partial mobilisation of reservists, people with military experience."

Fair comment, Hen. I retract my comment refering to naive conscripts although after the soldiers with military experience are recalled, (along with the convicts), innocent Russian citizens will be expected to follow so, if we don't get nuclear escalation in the short term, I'd be expecting the people of Russia to begin kicking off sooner rather than later.

Putin is now playing the 'boiled frog' game with his population; getting them used to partial mobilisation (Tepid then warm water), with ideas of morphing his war into full mobilisation? (Boiling water), before his people realise that they are going to be cooked and sacrificed, (along with a global population), to address Putin's hubris and embarrassing prediciment.

Note how he turns things around when addressing his own citizens; attempting to blame the whole of the West for the Ukraine war and situation.

No, Mr Putin, you alone are responsible for this war. (Though I acknowledge that a NATO that continued to creep up to Russian borders holds some responsibility as well).
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But would he really unleash nuclear war on the world?

I don't think so.
SQL
SQL Male
13 days ago
Putin is now being played like an angry dog on a lead. The 'players' don't want a quick and absolute victory as that may cause Putin to go nuclear. Instead they are just making slow inroads into his arena and will gradually grind him down without causing too much of an instant loss of face. Eventually Putin's chums will realise they are losing and either terminate him or find he has an inoperable medical condition that requires him to be kept out of view until he dies in mysterious circumstances.

All this is providing the UK and Americans a golden opportunity to test out their latest weapons against the Russians without actually going to war. Putin miscalculated the West's feelings and intentions to a catastrophic degree.


There is the problem of the senior members of Putin's entourage that support and promote his actions, these need to be eliminated at the same time that Putin is silenced. The woman who was killed by a car bomb in Moscow recently was to daughter of one of these extremists. Maybe she was sacrificed as a warning - or maybe she was sacrificed to try to stir up more pro-war feelings in the wider population.

It is a dangerous time to be near Putin at the moment, especially if the security forces are not fully supporting you.

SQL
wonderoushen
wonderoushen Female
13 days ago
For all we know he's been given an ultimatum by his military advisors, it could be a case of start winning or dig your own grave? He has been openly criticised by his military and allies and thats always going to be difficult when the stakes are so high for him personally.

I don't think he will start with nuking other countries, he's far more likely to start off with nuking something smaller and within Ukraine, gradually ramping it up until he comes up against a big obstacle, then he will back off a bit and then comes back and nuking Kyiv or somewhere really significant within Ukraine and seeing what the reaction is. Another thing to remember is Putin will risk losing the few allies he has around the world, such as Turkey, who are trying to broker peace again and China wouldn't be to happy either.
On-The-Beach
On-The-Beach Male
13 days ago
I know this sounds a bit strange to say but tactical nuclear weapons, (aside from their name and the psychological or moral fallout of using them), can be quite modest devices as little as 1 kiloton causing (devastating) damage in small pockets of areas as little as 300 metres across, (having flown on missiles sent from as far as 5000 km away) and we understand that Putin just views them as useful additions in his armoury.

Trouble is though ... a 100 kiloton nuclear device can also qualify as a tactical nuclear weapon and that's disturbingly huge when compared to the 10 kiloton and 15 kiloton bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in the 2nd woRld war.

Do the smaller tactical nukes cause nuclear fallout?

Um. Nor really. Not compared to the city busting strategic nuclear weapons that would be used in an all out war.

And even in an all out war, warring sides need scores of the bomblets inside hundreds, (or thousands?), of those giant intercontinental ballistic missiles to target individual cities so its not as if WW3 would be over in no time! It would actually take ages as city after city was targeted. Although ... Russia now has supersonic delivery systems that the West cannot even see or pinpoint, let alone stop in any conventional way and, for all we know, Putin's whole demeanour and confidence in threatening the West may lie in the invincibilty he feels such weapons give him.

Can we survive a nuclear war?

Apparently ... sheltered and wearing masks (MASKS!!!), a radiation cloud can pass an area in 24 hrs so, for some folk, in some areas, there is some concept of just hunkering down and crossing your fingers the wind doesn't change but its all a bit grim isn't it? And the planet would be fcuked. :-(

And what if the West tolerated the use of small tactical nuclear weapons? (I don't think it would but what if it did?)

We might witness Putin "crossing the Rubicon,"an idiom that means that something is going past a point of no return. And, for all we know, 2022 would then become a pivitol point in human history; a point where tactical nuclear weapons became just an accepted extension of existing modern warfare?

And even if Nato and the West did react?

As a point in time?

The point I describe as being some narrow band of time related strategic thinking or some refusing to blink moment? That'll be the game changer, won't it?

"Putin has fired a strategic nuclear weapon."

I wonder what the Nato playbook says about that?
On-The-Beach
On-The-Beach Male
13 days ago
I repeat though ...

I believe Putin requires the cooperation of his generals to actually launch a nuclear attack and, as Hen has commented prior, there is considerable discord in military and allied camps currently leading or supporting his war in Ukraine.
HotOrWot
HotOrWot Male
12 days ago
I think China takes advantage of Russia with trade deals but doesn't care much for Russia and wouldn't back Russia in any other way. If Putin escalates his war too much he will be very much on his own.
wonderoushen
wonderoushen Female
12 days ago
It would seem that the meeting in Uzbekistan last week didn't go Putins way, I think his allies such as China are getting fed up, not that I'm sure China was ever really on board with Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Russia seems to be running out of weapons and is buying them in from North Korea and Iran, aothough how much of this is nonsense I don't know? But the losses Russia has suffered are huge, now it seems that nobody wants to fight this war with thousands trying to flee and those that arn't protesting against mobilisation in their thousands. As many of these are men who've done thier military service, could it be that they know something we don't? Are Russian weapons not as good as we've been led to believe, do they have enough of them? The leadership seems to have been equally poor, I wonder if these reservists are mobilised and sent to the front as cannon fodder if they will surrender en masse or turn on thier own commanders?

Next time you watch any news bulletin from Putin, look at the general sat near him, he's starting to look increasingly like the puppet master, I wonder if he will be the one to pull the trigger on Putin?

The other thing to remember is winter is comming, we dont' think of campaigning season anymore and think its something that was left behind with the advent of modern weaponry, but with a land army in the field with the sorts of winters they have in that part of the woerld its a serious consideration.
ToBeAdvised
ToBeAdvised Male
12 days ago
If Putin escalates his war too much he will be very much on his own.


That hasn't stopped any dictator before. Especially when they're a total nut job like he is.
And for all the Russian people know (as they're only told what he wants them to know) it's as he claims that all of this is being originated outside of Russia by the evil, scheming Western Europe, US, NATO et al and this "special military operation" in Ukraine is to liberate areas and people that want to be incorporated back into Russia and to protect the borders of Mother Russia itself.
Pixiefluff
Pixiefluff Female
12 days ago
Nobody fights a war alone. Putin has backing to have carried on this far. Hitler didn't rage war alone he had a strong backing of supporters, generals and government behind him. I'm curious how this has gone on so long without any intervention from NATO given the breaches of laws. That makes me wonder if this is prolonged for a reason. 

Aren't Turkey currently being slated for trying to/planning  join the SCO? Shanghai Co-operation organisation. Odd move for a NATO partner. Why would they do that? 
Youthful_Yosef
Youthful_Yosef Male
12 days ago
ToBeAdvised Male
1 hours ago
If Putin escalates his war too much he will be very much on his own.


That hasn't stopped any dictator before. Especially when they're a total nut job like he is.
And for all the Russian people know (as they're only told what he wants them to know) it's as he claims that all of this is being originated outside of Russia by the evil, scheming Western Europe, US, NATO et al and this "special military operation" in Ukraine is to liberate areas and people that want to be incorporated back into Russia and to protect the borders of Mother Russia itself.


We are lucky enough to live in a country with an enormous flow of free information but Russia, and others, are not so fortunate and believe what their leaders are telling them to believe. If the Russian citizens knew that Putin had started a war to satisfy his own ego and was murdering thousands of innocent men, women and children they would not be supportive although even protest under that madman is difficult as one wrong word can see you in prison or dead.
MrQuiet
MrQuiet Male
12 days ago
Spot on X_X.
Mumsie
Mumsie Female
11 days ago
All the men / women being dragged off the streets , riots , people thrown into inhuman prisons , just filthy squalor, for who refuses to go along with this idea of Putin's   enlistment ..An expert in the manipulation of truth and words . an intelligent madman , having his power , to scare the country's young people , to flee the country where they can . Some arrested and never seen again This man thinks and believes he can do whatever he wants .must be so well protected by his security 
wonderoushen
wonderoushen Female
11 days ago
"Elections" are happening in the the occupied territories today, people get to "decide" if they want to be Russian or Ukrainian, I use inverted comma's as I don't think anybody really believes thesse are free and fair elections. The result isn't in doubt, because its fixed, Putin will be able to say that these regions want to be part of Russia and Russia is obeying the will of the people by continuing it occupation and it gives him an excuse to use more and different weapons to "defend" Russian from foreign attack.
BOYDEL
BOYDEL Male
11 days ago
Direct action by NATO would in effect be an act of war and provoke widespread retaliation and a great many collateral deaths.
On-The-Beach
On-The-Beach Male
11 days ago
For anyone wishing to view a highly polished and accurate account of why Russia has failed so comprehensively, search Youtube for "Ukraine's Counterattack: How Putin's Political Handcuffs Opened the Door for Kyiv" OR follow this link.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWv2OY01fOI
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William Spaniel is the Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh. He is also an author who studies war, nuclear proliferation, and terrorism.

His account as found in the supplied link is utterly brilliant and explains and answers so many of the questions we have difficulty understanding.


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