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Vaccine Queue Counter

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Male
The_38th_Parallel  Male  Essex
4-Jan-2021 12:40 Message #4802409
There's a site where you put in a few details (like age, personal circumstances etc.) and it calculates where you're likely to be in the vaccine queue.
I just did mine and based on my answers it came out with -

"Based on your profile, there are between 12,305,865 and 18,991,925 people in front of you in the queue for a COVID vaccine across the UK.
?? Given a vaccination rate of 1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your two doses of vaccine and be fully protected by between 25/06/2021 and 27/09/2021.

Will put that on my calendar.

link to follow
Male
The_38th_Parallel  Male  Essex
4-Jan-2021 12:42 Message #4802410
https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk
Male
HotOrWot  Male  Lancashire
4-Jan-2021 13:54 Message #4802416
I should be before you. Age before ........ and all that.
Male
fosy  Male  Leicestershire
4-Jan-2021 17:01 Message #4802422
for me there are 6-10 million in front of me, and it quotes a time scale between 29/3 to 23/5.
Male
Jeff  Male  East Sussex
4-Jan-2021 17:01 Message #4802424
It reminds of Peter Cook talking about the line to throne saying something like "If 15 million people were to die tomorrow, I would become Queen of England."

We could jump the queue by becoming influential and setting an example, if not becoming the Queen then becoming say the Prime Minister or a big star.


As you show some figures, and for anyone else interested, here's a paradox from the book "Why do buses come in threes? The hidden mathematics of everyday life" by R.Eastaway & J.Wyndham. I'm completely rewording it, but I don't think there's any mistake in it.
Although a vaccine is to prevent someone having a certain illness in future, for simplicity I'll imagine a tablet TryToCure that tries to cure someone already having that illness, and a placebo DoNut which does nothing. (Assume that some people recover naturally, and the doctors don't indicate to the patients which is TryToCure and which is DoNut, (e.g. a double-blind trial)).

(a) Dr. Smith has 140 patients with that illness. He gives TryToCure to 100 patients, and DoNut to 40 patients. Of the patients given TryToCure 66 recover, which is 66% success, and of the patients given DoNut 24 recover, which is 60% success. (66%=66/100, 60%=24/40.)

(b) Dr. Jones has 700 patients with that illness. He gives TryToCure to 200 patients, and DoNut to 500 patients. Of the patients given TryToCure 180 recover, which is 90% success, and of the patients given DoNut 430 recover, which is 86% success. (90%=180/200, 86%=430/500.)

But if we add (a) and (b), we find that TryToCure has been given to 300 patients and DoNut to 540 patients, and of the patients given TryToCure 246 recover, which is 82% success, and of the patients given DoNut 454 recover, which is 84% success. (300=100+200, 540=40+500, 246=66+180, 82%=246/300, 454=24+430, 84%=454/540.)

The paradox (indicating a logic error, but can you spot it?) is that:-
- In each of (a) and (b), TryToCure has a higher success rate than DoNut.
- If we add (a) and (b), TryToCure has a lower success rate than DoNut!
Male
HotOrWot  Male  Lancashire
4-Jan-2021 17:38 Message #4802430
I might be in your queue fosy lol.
Male
brisinger  Male  Lancashire
4-Jan-2021 18:50 Message #4802439
I nearly choked on my coffee.
Have you made sure you've checked out the Toilet paper calculator just in case? ROFL
Female
Victoriana11  Female  Buckinghamshire
4-Jan-2021 19:41 Message #4802445
We had an email from the local surgery this afternoon, saying to be prepared to go to the local Football Stadium for the vaccine sometime soon, but over 85's were to be considered first, and we would be considered in due course. and NOT to ring the surgery.
Female
NoSaint  Female  Devon
4-Jan-2021 20:56 Message #4802455
The vaccinations can't come fast enough for me.
Male
fosy  Male  Leicestershire
4-Jan-2021 22:33 Message #4802469
how,

you can have my place....for a "consideration" ;¬)


mmm....i feel a scam coming on, i wonder how many times i can sell my place in the queue before i get my collar felt ??
Male
HotOrWot  Male  Lancashire
4-Jan-2021 23:00 Message #4802475
Very opportunist fosy LOLOL.
Male
Jeff  Male  East Sussex
5-Jan-2021 12:28 Message #4802502
The paradox in my previous post is an example of Simpson's Paradox.

It is sometimes used to give misleading statistics, such as about male and female pay rates or success rates.

Simpson's Paradox is named after statistician & Bletchley Park codebreaker Edward Simpson whose tutor was E.Bartlett. Thinking about Bart Simpson, some of the writers of The Simpsons cartoons are experts in maths (e.g. J.S.Burns, D.S.Cohen, A.Jean, K.Keeler, J.Westbrook), and Simon Singh's 2013 book "The Simpsons and their Mathematical Secrets" goes into the maths hidden in some episodes of The Simpsons cartoon, with chapters such as "Bart the Genius", "Homer's Last Theorem", and "Lisa Simpson, Queen of stats and bats".
The book includes as an example of that paradox: "the American Civil Rights Act of 1964 ... the Democrats outvoted Republicans in the north and south separately in support of the act, but Republicans outvoted Democrats in the north and south combined! This sounds ludicrous, yet these facts are undeniable. ... Importantly, the voting records for the 1964 Civil Rights Act are not a rare statistical quirk. This sort of reversal in interpreting data, Simpson's paradox, causes confusion in many other situations, ranging from sporting statistics to medical data."

But before Donald Trump phones me and says "I just want to find 11,780 votes", Simpson's Paradox is not a factor in the current situation.
(Trump had asked The Simpsons' creators to appear in a show, and in the year 2000 the "Bart to the Future" episode Trump was shown as becoming president (predicting the future by 16 years), but his voice was done by Dan Castellaneta.)
Male
HotOrWot  Male  Lancashire
5-Jan-2021 12:33 Message #4802503
The Simpsons is an excellent show.

I said all that and didn't mention Trump or religion. LOLOL.
Female
Minnie-the-Minx  Female  Hertfordshire
5-Jan-2021 12:41 Message #4802506
Brilliant. That made me laugh. Thank you. I'm off to give it ago now.

Female
Minnie-the-Minx  Female  Hertfordshire
5-Jan-2021 12:47 Message #4802507
Bit sooner than you, but a few months to make my mind up about whether or not to have it:

Based on your profile, there are between 18,991,925 and 21,646,485 people in front of you in the queue for a COVID vaccine across the UK.
?? Given a vaccination rate of 1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your first dose of vaccine between 18/05/2021 and 06/06/2021.

You should then get your second dose by between 10/08/2021 and 29/08/2021.
Female
Minnie-the-Minx  Female  Hertfordshire
5-Jan-2021 12:48 Message #4802508
They are a bit ambitious expecting an uptake of 70%, aren't they?
Male
HotOrWot  Male  Lancashire
5-Jan-2021 14:07 Message #4802510
It might be made up of around 90% take up by normal people and a 20% take up by Facebook members. LOLOL.
Male
tumbled  Male  Gloucestershire
5-Jan-2021 14:21 Message #4802511
Mine works out the same as fosy......

But snce the announcement yesterday, Boris is saying that the top four priority groups should all have their first injection by mid Feb.......I'm in the 4th group, so hopefully mid Feb.....
Male
persona_non_grata  Male  North London
5-Jan-2021 14:37 Message #4802514
I don't mind the 10,000,000 or so people in front of me as long as it's an orderly queue and the weather is fine.
Male
HotOrWot  Male  Lancashire
6-Jan-2021 07:59 Message #4802551
Looks like it's all happening by the middle of the year. Hopefully.
Male
Hierophant  Male  East Anglia
6-Jan-2021 08:16 Message #4802557
I wouldn't count on it, pharmacies have been snubbed after offering to help with vaccinations and Public Health England say they won't work on a Sunday.
Our NHS is shooting itself in the foot.... lol

According to the counter, I'm due my vaccine in December this year....
Female
Andromeda  Female  Berkshire
6-Jan-2021 08:26 Message #4802558
I understood from my doctor that the vaccinations must be done in bulk using larger venues and would not be suitable for individual pharmacies.
Male
Hierophant  Male  East Anglia
6-Jan-2021 08:56 Message #4802562
I don't see why, this is an emergency and we need to get people vaccinated. So let's get on with it!
I've heard great suggestions that empty schools should be used, but as yet nothing.
Israel is putting us to shame, they are vaccinating like crazy with none of the state sponsored red-tape that undermines our ability to do stuff like this.
The NHS is like a massive ship that finds it almost impossible to change course...
Female
Andromeda  Female  Berkshire
6-Jan-2021 09:25 Message #4802565
We are not experts so it's no surprise our knowledge is limited but my doctor was saying it is the way the vaccine must be used. It's to suit the vaccine.
Male
Hierophant  Male  East Anglia
6-Jan-2021 09:31 Message #4802566
What does that even mean?
As long as the vaccine is administered by a trained person, a doctor or nurse is present to make sure there is no adverse reaction and proper records are kept, what's the problem?
We manage to accommodate millions of voters at polling stations and count the results within 24 hours, so why can't we ramp up this sort of thing?...

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