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New Data

from experts about lockdown

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wonderoushen  Female  Gwynedd
21-Apr-2020 19:11 Message #4777499
I saw some new data analysis last night about the effectiveness of lockdown, it was from a chap called Hennighan from the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at Oxford University, he thinks that hand washing an social distancing has had the greatest effect on stopping the spread of CV19. He also said that the effects on peoples health may be made worse by lockdown as people arn't going to A&E for all the usual heart attacks, strokes etc for fear of catching CV19 and that will catch up with people a bit later and they will have worse outcomes than if they'd been treated straight away as normal, that all the normal operations that people would be having are going to be more complicated as people are going to be in poorer condition by the time they are seen. There also the knock on effect for mental health, DV and child abuse with people having no safe place to get help or move away. It seems a bit counter-intuitive, but I wonder if he's right, I suspect he may be, but then i can barely count so flashy graphs and a convincing sounding argument will interest me more than something that makes my eyes glaze over.

eurostar  Female  Merseyside
21-Apr-2020 19:45 Message #4777502
I know an A&E nurse in Liverpool who says that dept is very quiet, apart from serious cases, ie strokes, heart attacks, broken bones etc the usual drunks, druggies and basically time wasters who could just go to a chemist are not coming in as much, as for mental health sufferers they seem to be ringing the helplines more frequent rather than calling for an ambulance

terry  Male  West Yorkshire
21-Apr-2020 20:44 Message #4777521
The CC Unit at Calderdale was full last week and they were booting people out as soon as they could because the beds were needed, perhaps that meant lots of people were having heart attacks or coronary events? I don't know.
The place I used to volunteer at is taking a lot more calls from people with many different issues, including the ones mentioned, although that may be because the organisation are in turn short staffed due to volunteers self isolating or ill with CV19

I do think this isolation is going to create a lot more issues for people as time goes on....sadly only time will tell whether isolating is a good move or not, for the moment I'm sticking with it as much as possible, more from the view that if I do have it, it would devastate me to think I had passed it to someone else.

Minnie-the-Minx  Female  Hertfordshire
23-Apr-2020 08:20 Message #4777715
I read that they are booting people out of hospital ASAP to make sure they don't catch CV-10 or anything else. And even in the covid wards, they want you out as soon as you can manage on your own even if you are still very weak, so that you don't pick up any kind of secondary that could finish you off in your weakened state.

ToBeAdvised  Male  Essex
23-Apr-2020 08:39 Message #4777716
And don't forget cancer screening too.
Covid-19 has caused NHS cancer screening services to be put on hold since the lockdown began.
The impact of this is the estimated 200,000 people per week are now not being screened for e.g. breast, bowel and cervical cancers where detection of the disease before any symptoms show in the early stages means treatment is more effective.
So that's going to have a direct impact on well over 1 million people during the "Lockdown I & II" periods (& that's before we even get to the next likely "Lockdown III" to the end of May) and delay others being screened after while the service catches up the backlog.

BOYDEL  Male  Surrey
23-Apr-2020 09:14 Message #4777718
Chris Whitty last evening said it would only be sensible to lift lockdown if/when we have either a suitable vaccine/effective drug treatment for CV19 - whilst also saying neither are likely for the rest of this calendar year.

Bewildered  Female  Norfolk
23-Apr-2020 09:54 Message #4777720
AE depts are much quieter as 50% were non accident or emergency in the first place...!!
No fights, no alcohol related injuries, no sore big toe or minor cut to thumb... !! but soon as restrictions are lifted slightly they will be back.

Now you see true emergencies, heart attacks, stoke, sepsis etc ...

Also many hospitals have made a dedicated zone for respiratory conditions as are all suspect Covid cases,,,

wonderoushen  Female  Gwynedd
23-Apr-2020 10:38 Message #4777731
But how many minor strokes and cardiac events are being missed, I don't think its as simple as to say its only serious cases and not minor ones like sore toes, if someone has an infection in the nail bed and it goes untreated then it could turn into sepsis couldn't it or go gangrenous?

Good point SG, I ment to mention cancer screening and treatment, my DiL had breast cancer and I'm so glad she had it last year than this year, she'd got the all clear a couple of months before lockdown. No routine breast bowel or cervical cancer tests are being carried out even for patients who are at risk, how many of them will die or have far worse outcomes from not being treated early?

If lockdown continues at its current rate and that seems it could be until the end of the year at least, what about other routine GP and dentist visits, is there being any provision made for how normal services will be able to resume?

tumbled  Male  Gloucestershire
23-Apr-2020 12:03 Message #4777742
There's a lot of quite confusing things that are happening at the moment....all around the world....

We all pick up on different things.....also different theories etc....some are common ground....some are in conspiracy theory territory.....

As well as the deserved praise for all the NHS and helpers and Emergency workers etc, there is also the usual pandemonium....and delays and mistakes and cancellations......some highlighted for political gain.....some for other reasons....

Some friends and family have had appointments cancelled.....and I have had a few cancelled or delayed.....I already had one colonoscope.....but my next one has been delayed.....and further little things like blood tests for the anaemia haven't come through yet....

I'm just going along with it...rather than chase anything up.....but also with one eye on my condition worsening and going to hospital....A and E if need be.....Things are fairly steady at the moment though.....and the NHS resources are full on in this 'weird lockdown' scenario...

Hierophant  Male  East Anglia
23-Apr-2020 12:20 Message #4777743
There's some other data (isn't there always) from a bloke who is good with figures at the FT.
He reckons the death toll is more than double the 17,000 the govt are quoting, but he doesn't seem to be saying they're lying.
I started to read it and my head went all fuzzy so I'm not sure if it was more govt bashing or there is a method in his madness.
I've tried to get an answer that if this is true for the UK then does it mean death rates around the world are actually much higher, but nobody has answered the question.
All countries are doing pretty much the same thing in response to this virus so you would think his rule could be applied everywhere....

TimidTim  Male  Derbyshire
25-Apr-2020 19:00 Message #4777968
New York City have started antibody testing, just over 20 per cent of New Yorkers have already had C19.
The test sample was 3000 (random).
If this is correct, the mortality rate would be lower than prediction rates to date.

Germany have started antibody testing, but the UK is still claiming it does not have an accurate test yet.

Topaz53  Female  Northamptonshire
25-Apr-2020 22:01 Message #4777982
The whole situation is subject to constant contradiction..

Don't go to the doctors or hospitals...
But DO go to the A&E for non corona virus related problems...but don't go if you think you may be unwell, but stay at home and phone 111 who may redirect you to the nearest A&E department......

HotOrWot  Male  Lancashire
26-Apr-2020 08:50 Message #4777990
The whole situation is subject to constant contradiction.

More so on social media. Governments laws and guidelines has been clear enough.

JustLyn  Female  Cheshire
26-Apr-2020 13:55 Message #4778033
How can anyone quote a death toll due to Covid19 if they haven't actually checked they had it when they died outside a hospital where they do get tested.

It's pretty obvious that all these deaths in care homes are likely to be Covid19 related and a consequence of it. I know some doctors, because they have no access to testing their patients, are reluctant to put Covid19 on a death certificate because it would be a calculated guess, so I have read some families are knowing their relative had all the symptoms of Covid19 but have "natural causes" as he reason so this skews the statistics.

As I mentioned somewhere earlier, the home in which my niece works lost 5 residents in a couple of weeks, way above normal, and with symptoms, but they are not tested and not recorded as Covid19.

Reasonable calculated guesstimates can be made where if all the deaths are totted up and minus the expected and usual death rate, then the remaining could be added to the hospital figures.

Then there's the ones who die at home of Covid19, untested, with symptoms, but are afraid to go to hospital for fear of catching it, then found dead in bed.

I read that having Covid19 affects blood clotting so is always contributing to strokes. So if a patient dies of a stroke, then the stroke might be on the death certificate when it was still a Covid19 related death.

You could easily double the numbers.

So in places where testing started early, and you can negatively test as well, you can direct which groups are likely immune and which groups are still susceptible.
So if a test isn't accurate which is one of the excuses not to use certain tests offered to us, even a 90% sensitive test would give you a 9 out of 10 accuracy to still help segregate groups and isolate the right people leaving a lower potentially infected density of people circulating.


Hierophant  Male  East Anglia
26-Apr-2020 15:12 Message #4778038
When I worked in care it wasn't unusual to lose several residents over a couple of days so assuming it's down to this virus is wrong. Without knowing the resident's personal situation you can't assume that covid-19 killed them.
It's all a lot of guesswork, rather like those people who say the govt locked down a week or two weeks too late - what a load of nonsense, they have absolutely no evidence or numbers to back that up, it's pure guesswork.

This testing thing baffles me, so many experts saying it's the silver bullet, but I fail to see how.
Say you test 500,000 people and 50,000 test positive so you isolate them, what happens to the other 450,000? Are they able to go to work, socialise and resume normal life? Of course not.
The isolated ones will presumably be at home unless they are seriously ill and go into hospital which is what is happening now, so where's the benefit?
You've spent all that time and money testing a fraction of the population once, unless you test millions regularly I don't see how it helps.
Of those 450,000 who tested negative how many will be infected a few days later because they have not distanced themselves properly from the other 65 million people in this country who haven't been tested?...

BOYDEL  Male  Surrey
26-Apr-2020 15:45 Message #4778041
LSE research says median survival duration for residents in all Care Home types is just 19.6 months - so with around 410,000 total residents that means average 345 daily deaths.

That splits out to median 11.9 months survival in a Nursing Home vs 26.8 months in a Residential Home - whilst overall 90% of residents are over age 75.

Whilst undoubtedly there are many CV19 deaths amongst Care Home residents it is extremely challenging to be certain on a case by case basis - esp without testing for CV.

tumbled  Male  Gloucestershire
26-Apr-2020 16:06 Message #4778042
Is anyone who dies of flu, just being given a cause of death of 'coronavirus'?....

It certainly seems like flu deaths are just being brushed aside.....or under the carpet....or something....Nobody talks about flu at all....not just here.....but the world over........Yet flu normally loads......It varies a bit from year to year.....but often more than this virus has killed.....

It all seems very very strange.....

JustLyn  Female  Cheshire
26-Apr-2020 16:56 Message #4778043
I didn't say anyone dying in a care home was to be assumed to be the Covid19. That would be daft.

But 5 deaths, observed, with all the symptoms in one home, writhing due to being unable to breathe, and raised temperatures is a strong indication it is the Covid19 infection. The deaths are not observed to be similar to usual deaths. Had testing been available then the data would be more accurate.

It is known, like pneumonia used to be, that Covid19 sees people off more quickly than they would otherwise have done so the death is then due to Covid19, not directly the underlying condition, known or not know, because there is a lot of undiagnosed diabetes and other diseases out there, even in the young.

Hierophant  Male  East Anglia
26-Apr-2020 17:06 Message #4778044
Another worry is, according to an Oncologist who knows what he is talking about, in a typical April around 30,000 people would be diagnosed with some form of cancer in the UK, but with so few people going to the doctor or hospital he reckons 5000 will be the max this year.
That means thousands of people are going undiagnosed because of the lockdown, thereby storing up a potential timebomb further down the track.
Not easy these decisions for the govt are they?...

JustLyn  Female  Cheshire
26-Apr-2020 17:07 Message #4778045
Of those 450,000 who tested negative how many will be infected a few days later because they have not distanced themselves properly from the other 65 million people in this country who haven't been tested?...


If tested negative, during a pandemic is is necessary to distance and an incentive to.
If positive they need to isolate.
If recovered, they can engage and get to work to help society and the economy.

Testing would then only need repeating to confirm if any of those previously negative get symptoms.

It is still not perfect, a utopia of tracking disease, but far more efficient than we have now, and cost effective because as time progresses, more research can be picked up from it, and fewer people will need to be left needing to distance.

Also, those would be known who had no symptoms but recovered so they would no longer be infectious and shedding the invisible "spores" so they can effectively be safe with those distancing if they observe strict observation in NOT transferring spores (for want of a better word) that still might linger on surfaces that an immune person could still transport from one infected person to a vulnerable person.

Hierophant  Male  East Anglia
26-Apr-2020 17:22 Message #4778047
What does your "Exactly!" mean?

The WHO have said there is no evidence those who have recovered from the virus can't be infected again.
So you keep testing the 450,000 to see if they are still negative?
How often?
How many times?
What about the other 65 million?...

tumbled  Male  Gloucestershire
26-Apr-2020 17:54 Message #4778054
Not sure how much this has been mentioned on here.....but are the home testing kits any good.....and are they inundated with orders for them......Are they available....

One I saw was Medbelle......for a price of £225

I haven't really researched it.....but if they are available.....and if they are any good.....then I'm sure many thousands of people would 'find the money' to get get one......especially those with a few bob in the bank....

I certainly want to be tested at some point.....and I expect most others do as well....

There may be other testing kits as well that are cheaper.....

Gilpin  Female  Middlesex
26-Apr-2020 18:22 Message #4778059
The point of testing is to monitor the spread of the virus. At any given time, I suppose. And then take the appropriate action to lessen the spread. Also, according to the er, Science, if 60% of the population contract the virus, immunity, of some sort, not sure what sort, should occur. According to the science buff we have, whose name I can't remember. And he reasoning of herd immunity. The WHO however is sceptical of immunity, and has advised against thinking they cannot get it again.

A podiatrist can treat a bad toe infection, ingrowing toenail, etc. or chiropodist. No need for A&E, nothing would induce me to go to A&E. Dentists are still working for emergencies.

wonderoushen  Female  Gwynedd
26-Apr-2020 18:31 Message #4778061
Are chiropodists still working? I had a phone call from my dentist who cancelled my check up and told me they were allowed to no procedures due to lack of PPE and the only things they can do is give prescriptions for anti-biotics and painkillers. I saw the same thing from other dentists on the news and how people are taking their own teeth out because they can't stand the pain, dentists are also very limited in what they can prescribe, so they're unlikely to be able to give you painkillers strong enough and they freak out when you can't take penicillin.

Gilpin  Female  Middlesex
26-Apr-2020 18:52 Message #4778064
I saw a dentist on the telly working on a patient, who had an emergency tooth problem. So I assume some of them are. The NHS would have a list if that's the case.

Haven't needed a chiropodist so don't really know. But I would have thought a podiatrist would still be working. I had an ingrowing toenail last summer, and it had to be removed, or I'm sure would have turned septic and gangareen eventually set in. They must have them for emergencies. Or maybe a private chiropodist might be practicing.

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