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NotHermit  Male  Derbyshire 12-Mar-2019 11:19 Message #4736778
The vote on May's Brexit deal looks lost, according to bookmakers.
Why would a majority of Remain MP's vote any differently.
It looks like NO Deal will not happen, for same reasons.

Of course our remain MP's will vote to extend article 50.
So what happens next?

I am off to buy some money at the bookies.
If I lose I will be very happy.
wonderoushen  Female  Gwynedd 12-Mar-2019 19:05 Message #4736802
The ERG are going to vote against it too so its not just remainers.

I think its time TM resigns, it should mean an extension to Article 50 whilst the democratic process takes place, that process being a leadership election for the conservatives and then a GE.
Victoriana11  Female  Buckinghamshire 12-Mar-2019 19:14 Message #4736803
What on earth is all this costing...
Nigel_In_Devon  Male  Devon 12-Mar-2019 19:32 Message #4736804
Think most would rather Teresa finish off what she has started and then step in when Brexit is all over. Brexit appears to be a bit of a poisoned chalice.
Clocky  Female  the West Midlands 12-Mar-2019 19:35 Message #4736805
Well that went dow like the leaded balloon it is.

Corbyn is beginning to coil like a snake ready to bite grab its prey.
Interesting times ahead.
NotHermit  Male  Derbyshire 12-Mar-2019 20:03 Message #4736806
Yes Clocky, I find this interesting.
If they could get out of Brexit, they would.
I see many casualties in the political sense.

I think they will avoid an election, because it will aid people like Farage.
It was fear of Farage that led to the referendum in the first place.

When you look at recent prime ministers, they include Cameron and Blair.
MP scandals including duck houses and non existent mortgages.
I see real change ahead at Westminster.
Clocky  Female  the West Midlands 12-Mar-2019 20:10 Message #4736807
Me too Hermit ... I think this is the sunset for politics as we know it... and it ain't a pretty one to watch.
I still want out though but don't want Ireland left out like a piece of rubbish or an after-thought.
Hierophant  Male  East Anglia 12-Mar-2019 21:58 Message #4736810
I think that's the end of Brexit, it will now die a slow painful death.
MP's will vote down a no deal, then they will vote to ask for an extension of Article 50 and boom!, the EU have us by the sensitive bits. They will demand an extension of a year or so with lots of caveats and we will have no choice but to accept because we have painted ourselves into a corner.
There is nowhere left to go - Corbyn screeches on about Labour's soft Brexit deal which but that will get voted down if it ever gets that far.
Labour have gone very quiet on a second referendum, Corbyn hasn't mentioned it at all today - personally, I think the UK will eventually revoke Article 50 and stay...
NotHermit  Male  Derbyshire 12-Mar-2019 22:29 Message #4736811
I do not think they can do that Hiero, I am thinking Lib Dems/student loans times a million.
I think they would stop Brexit if they could, but not many people would vote again for anyone involved.
I do not see any option other than Brexit.
I noticed recently that President Macron said that there would be conditions to any extension of article 50.
Suggesting another vote.

Now lets see, Macron makes the UK vote again, what would be the result?

At the end of the day, the only way to stop Brexit is to reject democracy.
Hierophant  Male  East Anglia 12-Mar-2019 22:48 Message #4736812
Who can't do what?
If we go back to the EU asking for an extension, it means the EU are totally in control.
They have elections in May and then all the top jobs are up for change - Jean Claude Juncker and others step down later this year and new top brass have to be installed. The EU wont want to be dealing with Brexit whilst all that is going on.
My guess is they will insist on a year or even two year extension, that could mean 5 years after the original referendum result - people are sick to death of it now, they will just want it to go away.
Ironically, I think the Brexiteers have killed Brexit...
wonderoushen  Female  Gwynedd 13-Mar-2019 11:27 Message #4736820
I agree Hiero, Brexiteers have killed Brexit, aided and abetted by TM and her intransigence. If we did a deal tommorow the whole Brexit thing wouldn't go away though, this is just agreeing a transition period, we'd have years of negotiations to follow, if people are sick of it now imagine how they'll feel in 5 years time?

If there was a short extension then its possible the existing MEP's could be carried over to the new parliament, but unless something significant is offered to make a 2 or 3 month extension worth it then its not worth it for anyone. I think we would get a longer extension if there was something like a general election or another referendum. We could revoke Article 50, go away and put heads together and come back with a totally different Brexit plan, one that was worked out across party lines and involving more than just Westiminster politicians.

The thing is though, what if the EU say 'no more, go away leave with no deal on 29th March, we're sick to death of you', I can't say I'd blame them if they did, from what I've seen they've been consistent in their position from before the referendum. It must be like negotiating with a bunch of toddlers, I really do think the reasons we're in this mess is our own fault, we're deeply divided as a country and parliament reflects that, no one has done anything to try and heal those gaps.

The other thing I think is that Brexit has shown the weaknessnes in our political system and the cobbled together nature of our so called constitution, I will do a seperate thread on that though.
Hierophant  Male  East Anglia 13-Mar-2019 11:56 Message #4736823
It's intransigence on all sides that is the problem - no one side can be blamed above all others.
I can't see the point on extending for a couple of months and if we go beyond May then we are obliged by EU law to field candidates in the Euro elections.
People seem to forget that the default position in law is that we leave on 29th with no deal - an amendment tonight will seek to remove no deal for ever.
If that happens, then I think no Brexit is even more likely as I totally agree that the "threat" of a no deal should be available to UK negotiators (whoever they may be) as a way of concentrating minds.
If the fear of a no deal has gone, why on earth would the EU want to talk to us any further?...
NotHermit  Male  Derbyshire 13-Mar-2019 17:34 Message #4736829
Its not just about the government and the EU Hiero.
Politicians have to satisfy voters, or they vote for someone else.
wonderoushen  Female  Gwynedd 13-Mar-2019 18:39 Message #4736832
Orthey don't vote at all.

barney  Male  Surrey 13-Mar-2019 20:55 Message #4736838
I for one will not be voting again, especially after tonight.
Its what we have known all along, the MPs are only there for themselves and don't give a damn what the rest of us think or want.
Hierophant  Male  East Anglia 13-Mar-2019 22:19 Message #4736841
"Politicians have to satisfy voters, or they vote for someone else."

Seriously? Do you honestly believe that any MP's come out of this with any credibility and are worth voting for?...
NotHermit  Male  Derbyshire 13-Mar-2019 22:32 Message #4736843
Its all change Hiero, that's the point.
So we end up with Euro elections, where millions of voters are still paying contributions to the EU.
Even though they voted to leave 3 years earlier.
A chance for voters to reinforce the message.
A chance for a new party to emerge.

The majority of politicians in office now have underestimated the voters.
It will be a new political era.
Why do you think David Cameron is now invisible?
Hierophant  Male  East Anglia 13-Mar-2019 22:55 Message #4736853
Sort of like UKIP you mean?

Personally, I think the best thing now would be a two year extension, we all step back from this mess and regroup.
Theresa May resigns, we get a new PM and we have a General Election - it's shit or bust time and if Corbyn wins we will all have to live with it.
We are going nowhere, our Parliament is never going to reach an agreement on this - we are kidding ourselves that this is solvable ...
fosy  Male  Leicestershire 13-Mar-2019 23:03 Message #4736856
" it's shit or bust time "

yes it is, and the best thing now is we leave with no deal and sod the mp,s who are trying to wreck brexit, and are going against the will of the people.
barney  Male  Surrey 13-Mar-2019 23:55 Message #4736859
I think a lot of MPs have seriously underestimated the effect this will have for themselves.

One MP , I missed his name, said I could lose my seat over this.

Bit late for that. he should have thought about that before instead of being so bloody arrogant in thinking the little people don't matter.
wonderoushen  Female  Gwynedd 14-Mar-2019 09:35 Message #4736860
Seems like TM's going to put her deal forward for a third time, groundhog day all over again, how many more times does she have to be told no?
Hierophant  Male  East Anglia 14-Mar-2019 10:21 Message #4736861
Wouldn't it be funny if we change the legislation to rule out leaving with no deal (after last night's vote) and then the EU refuse to grant any extension? That would leave us check mate with nowhere to go...
JustLyn  Female  Cheshire 14-Mar-2019 11:29 Message #4736862
Some MP's go on about 17 million voting for Brexit and that represented something like 52% of those that bothered to vote and thought they knew the implications of their vote. That means 48%, still a tidy sum didn't want to leave EU.

Even those that voted Leave are split on what Leave meant and the complexities involved and it would have not crossed their minds how "just leaving" left the entanglements of business and farming etc. as they would not consider it mattered to them at all.

I'm not avid either way. I didn't have a specific agenda as my agenda is more how our own Government are treating the people here in UK.

I do think it is playing out really interesting that a form of proportional representation is coming forth. Many Conservative MP's are negotiating with Labour MP's to form a more unified consensus where we could Leave, yes, but retain 48% or thereabouts of Remaining.

It's like a load of Lego bricks have been thrown in the air and have to keep being thrown in the air until they fall in some form of a Brexit structure where all sides, political poles and Brexit poles all have to learn to compromise to get the Brexit ship going out of harbour, all to the helm.

I think it's the only way it can happen, a soft Brexit with a possible Custom's Union, at least for the time being and foreseeable future. I think it's a good example of why, in this country, we need all political parties to work together more frequently in the proportion people have voted for them, and not first past the post where nearly half who voted would not have any representation at all.
barney  Male  Surrey 14-Mar-2019 12:59 Message #4736863
A senior Conservative said last night that no businessman worth his salt would enter into negotiations without a no deal up his sleeve otherwise the opposition could dictate whatever they want.
He said most of the MPs don't have a clue what they are doing.
Well call me sexist if you want but now you see the result of Blair filling the common's with his Blair Babes. They pop up on all the tv debates and most of them don't have a clue.
All MPs men and women should be a minimum age and have held down a proper job before being allowed to apply.
You wouldn't take a school leaver and put him/her in charge of the company.
JustLyn  Female  Cheshire 14-Mar-2019 13:31 Message #4736864

many MPs are businessmen and some are very rich and experienced, especially some desperate for a no-deal Brexit. Although no longer with the Tory's, Heidi Allen's background is business, though I think she wants a deal rather than no-deal. Like everything else, there are levels of agenda, knowledge, motives and I suspect the likes of Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson have less interest in how other businesses will struggle but how their individual wealth investments have to gain. Rees Mogg was used as an example on TV documentary a few days ago on his extensive personal gains if he succeeds in Brexit which is quite different from a smaller manufacturer exporting cheese or mechanical parts from UK.

I was only thinking this morning how MP's should have experience in what they vote on. In medicine and especially nursing, you could be struck off for making decisions on patients where you have no training or experience in the condition you are assessing. However, in my personal experience as a service user, MP's who vote on issues should have to have spent time actually knowing an issue they are voting on, be it health, disability or business. If we have a group of health professionals working together, you nearly always get a "lead" in speciality and I think this should apply to MP's. I think to become an MP they could score points on their personal experience in certain areas such as knowledge of how people become homeless before supporting Universal Credit like you suggest MPs should have experience in business to vote on business issues.

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